How will the return of international arrivals affect the real estate market?

The reopening of international borders this week and the return of overseas migration should benefit a number of key real estate markets across the country.

CoreLogic’s head of residential research in Australia, Eliza Owen, said the Melbourne hub stands to benefit the most from the return of overseas migration, having recorded one of the highest levels of net overseas migration. sea ​​in the years leading up to the pandemic.

She suggested that the housing preferences of skilled migrants could also be subject to change over time, which could potentially lead to increased demand in a number of other regions.

“The rise in popularity of regional Australia and south-east Queensland nationally could eventually attract greater employment opportunities, business inflows and overseas migrants to these same locations,” Ms Owen said. .

About 12.5% ​​of qualified visas granted in the second half of last year were for arrivals in Queensland, compared to an average of 11.5% in the three years to June 2019.

However, Ms Owen pointed out that 43.5% of qualified visas were granted for arrivals in NSW and that the total number of qualified visas granted had decreased.

CoreLogic said a slow return to overseas migration is to be expected, along with slower housing demand thereafter.

“However, many of the worst-hit markets have already seen a recovery trend since the start of last year, thanks to relatively affordable rents, a decline in total listings and, more recently, migrants temporary workers such as university students and visitors,” Ms Owen said.

According to Ms Owen, the start of the academic year has seen a relatively high proportion of incoming student visas in recent months.

“Rental demand from this cohort of migrants is likely to be more concentrated in inner-city areas of capital cities and near university hubs,” she said.

Ms Owen also explained that most immigrants from overseas have experienced an “occupancy cycle” that began with rental and shared housing before homeownership rates eventually became comparable to those who were born in Australia.

As a result, the areas most popular with newcomers in Sydney and Melbourne have suffered steep declines in rental values ​​after the borders closed in 2020.

“It should also be noted that a drop in migration during the COVID period may eventually translate into a drop in demand for purchases where foreign migrants would otherwise be further along in their occupancy cycle,” Ms Owen added. .

How will the return of international arrivals affect the real estate market?



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Last update: February 25, 2022

Posted: February 25, 2022